🎥 GW16 Elite Thinking: Free Hit, Take Two

The elite leaned into Arsenal — and still beat casuals by 18

The first half of the season is nearly over — and GW16 became a backup FreeHit for the elite. They dumped Mateta, leaned into Arsenal, and still outscored casuals by 18 points. Let’s unpack what happened.

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🍪 Chip Happens: Plan B Activated

13% of elite managers played FreeHit — the second-highest number this season after GW13 (57%). It wasn’t the main target week — but it was clearly marked as a contingency plan.

Almost 90% of elite managers have played the FreeHit now

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🎯 Captain Obvious: The One-Week Pivot

Haaland’s patchy form and Arsenal’s home fixture vs Wolves meant a rare shift away from the Norwegian.

• 91% of elite managers captained Saka

• Just 7% backed Haaland

Casuals moved far less:

• 47% captained Haaland

• 11% went with Saka

In the end, it barely mattered: Haaland (13) outscored Saka (11).

Takeaway: this was only the second time all season the elite rallied behind a captain outside the Salah–Haaland duo (the other time was GW3 — with Bruno Fernandes as the alternative).

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🔁 Transfers: Insurance Policy Cashed In

Transfers were plentiful — fuelled by FreeHit usage and the five free transfers issued pre-AFCON.

• Mateta was the standout exit (56% sold) due to injury and form

• Munoz, Minteh, Enzo lost 20–30% ownership

• Thiago (40%) emerged as the main replacement, while Guiu (30%) enabled managers to shift funds elsewhere

• Hincapie, Saka, Foden were brought in by 25–30%, reflecting Arsenal’s fixture and Foden’s form

Takeaway: the elite continue to consolidate around two forwards — now used by 75% of managers.

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🔢 Team Sheet: Built for Safety, Not Upside

• Arsenal (2.5) and Man City (2) were the most heavily-backed by the elite in the starting XI

• GKs: Raya (56%) and Dubravka (18%) remained favourites between the sticks

• DEFs: Andersen (76%), Virgil and Timber (both 55%) were the preferred trio; O’Reilly (29%) and Hincapie (26%) are the only ones to get any traction

• MIDs: Saka (94%), Bruno (90%) and Foden (80%) stood out; Semenyo, Minteh and Anderson flickered in the 20-30% region

• FWDs: Haaland and Thiago (both 98%) dominated squads

Takeaway: only 20% of elite managers now rely on 3-4-3

Arsenal and City dominated squads as elite managers made use of free transfers and FreeHit

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🎭 Hails and Fails: Damage Control

The elite beat casuals by 18 points — only GW6 and GW13 saw bigger gaps.

• Two elite managers even took a -4 hit

• Luke Hardy struggled (52 points, wrong captain)

• Łukasz Kublik managed a whopping 107, with only Timber and Thiago blanking

Takeaway: highly-owned players delivered, making it hard to truly collapse — but differentials still separated good weeks from great.

Differentials helped make this gameweek truly great. For some

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🔑 Key Takeaway: Why Plan B Still Worked

GW16 wasn’t perfect:

• Arsenal underwhelmed

• Haaland (the casuals’ captain) still scored 13

And yet the elite pulled away again. They acted together, trusted structure over vibes, and used FreeHit as an insurance, not out of desperation.